US IPOs Trail S&P 500 in 2025 as Crypto and AI Listings Decline

US initial public offerings posted uneven results in 2025, as choppy equity markets and growing investor caution around themes such as cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence weighed on several of the year’s most anticipated listings. While the IPO market reopened after a sluggish period, performance varied widely, underscoring a shift toward greater selectivity.

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On a weighted average basis, shares of companies that went public in 2025 — excluding closed-end funds and special purpose acquisition companies — gained 13.9%. That return lagged the S&P 500 Index, which advanced 16% over the same period, highlighting how newly listed stocks struggled to keep pace with broader market benchmarks.

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“2025 was clearly a year of contrasts for IPOs,” said Mike Bellin, PwC’s US IPO leader. “The window reopened, but only for certain companies.” According to Bellin, investors focused less on momentum and more on business quality, raising expectations for firms seeking to go public, particularly early-stage technology and consumer-facing companies.

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Performance data show a clear divide based on deal size. US IPOs raising between $500 million and $1 billion delivered weaker returns than their larger counterparts. Shares in that mid-sized category rose just 5.6% on a weighted average basis, compared with gains of roughly 20% for offerings exceeding $1 billion.

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Data center campus developer Fermi Inc. initially capitalized on enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, raising $785 million despite having no revenue or confirmed tenants at the time of its IPO. However, investor confidence faded quickly. The stock was already trading below its offer price when the company disclosed on Dec. 12 that its first investment-grade tenant had walked away from a deal. Shares are now down 58% from their IPO level.

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Navan Inc. also struggled to maintain momentum after going public. The AI-powered corporate travel and expense management company raised $923 million in its October listing, but its stock has fallen 35% since. Investors raised concerns about the company’s lack of profitability and near-term margins. Even with broadly positive analyst coverage citing Navan’s technology and long-term growth prospects, the shares have yet to trade above their IPO price.

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In contrast, cloud infrastructure provider CoreWeave Inc. demonstrated that the market remains open to AI-focused companies with the right fundamentals. The company’s shares have surged 98% since its $1.57 billion IPO. While the stock was volatile early on pressured by worries over losses and a heavy debt load stronger-than-expected earnings helped ease those concerns and restore confidence.

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Crypto IPOs Face Volatility

The cryptocurrency sector experienced significant turbulence in 2025, and even the year’s standout listing was not immune. Circle Internet Group Inc., the stablecoin issuer, delivered the strongest performance among large IPOs. Its $1.21 billion debut exceeded expectations, with shares jumping 278% in the first week, encouraging other digital-asset firms to test the public markets.

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Although Circle’s rally cooled, the stock remains up 169% despite Bitcoin sliding 28% from its peak. Growing regulatory acceptance of stablecoins and increased adoption by financial institutions have helped support the shares.

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Other crypto-related listings fared far worse. Gemini Space Station Inc., the exchange backed by the Winklevoss twins, surged on its first day of trading but slipped below its IPO price within five sessions as enthusiasm faded. The stock is now down 63% from its debut and carries a mixed analyst outlook, with six buy-equivalent ratings and four hold-equivalents among analyst.

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M&A Delivers the Biggest Win

Interestingly, the best-performing IPO of the year for early investors is no longer trading. Biotech firm Metsera Inc. raised $316.3 million in January before being acquired by Pfizer Inc. later in the year. The $65.60-per-share takeover price represented a significant premium to Metsera’s $18 IPO price, even before factoring in potential milestone-based payments of up to $20.65 per share.

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Big Swings at the Top End

Not all large IPOs were rewarded. Venture Global Inc., the second-largest US listing of 2025, posted the year’s worst debut performance. Despite cutting its IPO price range by more than 40%, the LNG exporter has seen its shares plunge 72% since raising $1.75 billion in January. Losses deepened after the company lost a dispute with BP Plc over selling liquefied natural gas on the spot market instead of honoring long-term contracts.

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At the other end of the spectrum, the year’s biggest IPO proved more resilient. Medline Inc.’s $7.2 billion offering has delivered the kind of steady performance investors favor. The medical equipment supplier benefits from a broad product portfolio and strong cash generation, giving it an edge over competitors. Since its Dec. 17 debut, the stock has climbed 40%.

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“The key lesson from 2025 is that the IPO market is firmly driven by fundamentals,” Bellin said. “Investors are far more selective, and companies need a clear strategy, solid operations, and a compelling story to succeed in today’s public markets.”

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