US Equity Futures Climb as Sentiment Improves and Oil Retreats

US equity-index futures climbed at the start of the week, signaling a rebound after days of choppy trading, as optimism strengthened around potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and reports that US officials may soften restrictions on Nvidia Corp.’s AI chip sales to China.

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Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose roughly 0.5%, extending Friday’s gains that helped major benchmarks finish a turbulent week marked by a sharp pullback in high-risk assets. Bitcoin slipped early Monday, giving back part of its weekend jump. Stocks opened higher in Australia and South Korea, while markets in Japan were closed for a holiday.

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Oil prices continued to slide, deepening the previous week’s steep decline its worst since early October as traders monitored signs of possible progress in Ukraine-Russia peace efforts. Any deal that increases crude shipments into an already well-supplied market could keep downward pressure on prices.

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Risk appetite improved on Wall Street following reports that US officials have begun initial discussions on whether to let Nvidia sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. Sentiment also brightened after New York Fed President John Williams suggested policymakers could still move toward a near-term rate cut.

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“Expect Asian markets to start on the front foot,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets. “But after last week’s swings, and with more uncertainty likely in the days ahead, investors will remain cautious about leaning too aggressively into the upbeat mood.”

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Volatility reemerged last week as doubts resurfaced about how quickly the Fed could roll out rate cuts. Assets popular among retail momentum traders from cryptocurrencies to AI-focused equities saw abrupt moves, while a plunge in Asian technology stocks dragged the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to its sharpest weekly loss since April.

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US stocks ultimately ended the week on a more positive note, rebounding from a selloff that rattled some of the market’s most speculative pockets and tested investor confidence following months of strong performance.

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Treasuries advanced Friday after Williams often viewed as closely aligned with Chair Jerome Powell signaled he sees scope for easing policy soon. He noted that risks to the labor market are rising, while inflation pressures have moderated. Traders increased wagers on a December rate cut, though policymakers remain divided. Boston Fed President Susan Collins emphasized she has not reached a firm conclusion about the next policy step.

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In currency markets, the euro and British pound traded steadily as attention shifted to Europe’s growing fiscal challenges. In France, the National Assembly rejected part of the government’s 2026 budget early Saturday, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s strategy to rein in the nation’s expanding deficit.

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Meanwhile, the UK government announced over the weekend that rail fares will be frozen in the budget scheduled for release Wednesday. The move is one of several anticipated affordability measures as Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves tries to cushion the political fallout of imposing roughly £25 billion ($33 billion) in tax increases and spending cuts needed to stabilize the country’s public finances.

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“The spending cuts and revenue-raising measures must be judged credible by the market,” strategists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia led by Joseph Capurso wrote in a note. “The risk is that investors see the budget as inadequate, pushing UK government bond yields higher and pressuring GBP/USD.”

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Geopolitical tensions also remained in the spotlight. The diplomatic clash between China and Japan continued, with Beijing sending a letter to the United Nations. In addition, Japan’s defense minister visiting a military base near Taiwan reaffirmed that plans to deploy missiles there remain on schedule, highlighting ongoing strains between the two countries over the island.

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On the US foreign-policy front, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump’s proposed Nov. 27 deadline for securing Ukraine’s backing for a US-supported peace framework is not fixed and may extend into the following week. Rubio’s comments followed talks in Geneva on Sunday between US and Ukrainian officials, which both sides described as constructive and moving closer to an agreement.

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