New York Fed Survey Finds Consumer Inflation Expectations Unmoved

US consumers’ expectations for inflation held steady in November, while views on job security showed noticeable improvement, according to the latest survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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The New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations, released Monday, showed that Americans expect inflation to rise 3.2% over the next year virtually unchanged from the previous month.

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Expectations for inflation three and five years out also stayed anchored at 3%, based on median responses. At the same time, the perceived chance of losing one’s job fell to 13.8%, the lowest level reported this year.

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The findings arrive as Federal Reserve officials prepare to cut interest rates again this week. Policymakers are widely anticipated to lower the benchmark rate for the third consecutive meeting on Wednesday as they work to prevent further strain in the labor market.

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Even so, some Fed members have recently warned that tariffs could keep certain price pressures elevated for longer, making the outlook for inflation expectations an important data point ahead of their policy announcement.

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Beyond inflation metrics, the survey indicated that consumers generally felt more upbeat about the job market in November compared with October. Respondents reported a lower probability that the unemployment rate would rise over the next year and expressed greater confidence in their ability to secure a new job if they were to lose their current one.

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However, the overall picture is not entirely positive. Despite incremental improvement in job sentiment, Americans still see labor market conditions as weaker than they were a year ago.

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Inflation also remains higher than many households would prefer, and those pressures are weighing on personal finances. According to the survey, 39% of consumers said their financial situation is worse than it was 12 months ago the highest share in two years.

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The survey results highlight a contrast between stabilizing inflation expectations and ongoing financial strain for many families. While consumers appear more reassured about job security and long-term price trends, they are also feeling the cumulative impact of rising living costs and a labor market that has cooled from its previously overheated pace.

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For the Fed, these mixed signals underscore the careful balance officials must strike. Stable inflation expectations may give policymakers some breathing room as they continue to adjust interest rates, but persistent concerns about household finances could pressure them to act more decisively if economic conditions soften further.

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