Goldman’s Top Trades for the Upcoming Earnings Season

The upcoming week marks the start of the first full stretch of second-quarter earnings season, with Goldman Sachs highlighting several stocks that could climb on the back of strong results. According to the investment bank, 35 companies from the S&P 500 and six from the Dow Jones Industrial Average are scheduled to report their earnings over the next week.

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Among them are major names like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, which are slated to announce their results before the market opens on Tuesday. Other corporate heavyweights such as PepsiCo and Netflix are scheduled to report on Thursday.

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Goldman Sachs analysts, led by John Marshall, wrote in a recent note that they believe investors will likely reward companies that deliver stronger-than-expected results. They note that market positioning doesn’t appear particularly overcrowded or overly cautious, creating room for positive stock reactions when companies beat expectations.

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The options market appears to support this sentiment. It’s currently pricing in average earnings-day moves of around 4.7%, which is the lowest level in two years. That figure is also significantly below the 7.1% movement expected during the previous quarter. This signals that investors are far less anxious heading into July’s earnings season compared to earlier in the year.

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Despite the calmer tone, Goldman Sachs anticipates that some individual stocks could still experience notable price swings on earnings day, especially those linked to larger themes like artificial intelligence, tariff developments, or changes in policy. According to Marshall, this quarter could see a return to more pronounced single-stock volatility driven by these broader narratives.

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To identify potential standout performers, Goldman screened for 25 companies with earnings estimates that significantly differ from consensus expectations. From that list, they identified 19 stocks where positive earnings surprises could result in strong upside performance.

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One such company is Permian Resources, an oil and natural gas producer that’s already posted a more than 28% gain over the past three months, significantly outperforming the nearly 17% rise in the S&P 500 during the same period. Goldman’s energy analyst Neil Mehta has a buy rating on the stock and sees an additional 13% upside potential.

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Mehta believes the company’s focus on cutting well costs, optimizing its cost structure, and expanding through mergers and acquisitions—especially from its Midland, Texas headquarters—will allow it to outperform its competitors. Permian Resources is expected to report its quarterly earnings on August 6.

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Another name that Goldman is optimistic about is State Street Corp., a financial services and asset management firm that’s jumped approximately 38% over the last three months. Analyst Alexander Blostein, who covers asset managers and capital markets, also has a buy rating on the stock. He sees State Street’s risk-reward ratio as the most favorable among trust banks under his coverage.

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He expects that following the company’s earnings report on Tuesday morning, Wall Street analysts will likely revise their estimates higher. Blostein cites a combination of stronger-than-expected fee income, a stable outlook for net interest income and deposits, and the company’s continued focus on expense control as reasons for optimism.

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GE HealthCare is another stock Goldman believes could exceed expectations this quarter. Shares of the Chicago-based medical technology firm have risen more than 19% in the past three months. Goldman analyst David Roman maintains a buy rating on the stock and suggests that current guidance of just 2% growth for the second and third quarters may be too conservative.

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He points to several tailwinds, including the strength of the U.S. imaging market, a quicker-than-expected rebound in China, and the recent launch of GE HealthCare’s radioactive diagnostic agent, Flyrcardo. Roman sees all of these factors contributing to a stronger-than-expected financial performance. GE HealthCare is set to release its second-quarter earnings before the market opens on July 30.

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In sum, while the market as a whole may be pricing in a relatively quiet earnings season compared to earlier in the year, Goldman Sachs believes there are still plenty of opportunities for investors to profit from individual names that surprise to the upside. Their analysis suggests that stocks tied to key themes or operating in outperforming sectors—like energy, financials, and healthcare—could deliver particularly strong results and enjoy meaningful stock gains in response.

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