Barclays Indicator Delivers Its First Buy Signal Since August

Traders who’ve been bruised by this week’s volatility may finally have a compelling reason to step back into the market thanks to a well-regarded model from Barclays Plc that just flashed a notable signal.

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Barclays’ Equities Timing Indicator, better known as BETI, slipped below -7 for the first time since Aug. 4, according to a Friday note from Alexander Altmann, the bank’s global head of equities tactical strategies. While that may sound like just another data point in a noisy market, this particular threshold has a strong history of calling short-term rebounds in the S&P 500. For investors searching for an entry point after days of sharp market swings, the signal stands out.

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Altmann explained that when BETI falls into the -7 to -8 range, the S&P 500 has tended to deliver meaningful upside in the weeks that follow. Over the past decade, the index has generated an average gain of 6.6% in the 42 days after BETI hits that zone. The median return over that window is 5.1%, and perhaps most striking the model has produced a 90% success rate since 2015.

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Put simply, when BETI flashes a signal this bearish, the market has historically moved higher not long after. That’s a far stronger outcome than the average 2.2% gain investors would expect when starting from a randomly chosen day over the same period.

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The timing of this signal may also explain why it’s resonating so strongly. US equities rebounded on Friday after a punishing intraday reversal earlier in the week left the S&P 500 heading toward what could be its toughest week since April. After days marked by sharp swings and heightened anxiety around valuations, AI-related momentum, and shifting rate expectations, market participants are eager for a gauge that suggests near-term relief could be on the horizon.

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Still, Altmann urged caution. Even though the BETI indicator has a robust track record, its latest move comes at a moment when several of its individual components are pointing in a more negative direction. High-yield credit spreads have widened noticeably, signaling rising concern about financial conditions.

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At the same time, Barclays’ own Euphoria Indicator a measure designed to track extremes in investor sentiment has collapsed, indicating a retreat from the exuberance that had recently pushed stocks to fresh highs. Taken together, these readings highlight growing unease beneath the surface, even as the broader market attempts to stabilize.

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Altmann’s point is that while BETI is flashing a buy signal, investors should recognize that not all the underlying metrics are moving in the same direction. The overall picture reflects a market that has become more conflicted: technical indicators suggest a rebound is statistically likely, but sentiment and credit conditions are signaling caution. As a result, traders may view this moment as a potential tactical opportunity rather than a full-fledged shift in the market’s long-term trajectory.

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For context, BETI is designed to distill a range of market indicators including price momentum, volatility, investor sentiment, and macro conditions into a single reading that helps gauge optimal entry and exit points for equities.

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When the indicator falls deeply negative, it often suggests that selling pressure has reached unsustainable levels and that markets may be set up for a short-term bounce. Conversely, extremely elevated readings tend to coincide with overbought conditions and elevated risk of a pullback.

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Over the past several weeks, equities have been whipsawed by shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next steps, mixed earnings reactions, and a growing debate over whether enthusiasm for AI has pushed certain stocks beyond reasonable valuations. Against that backdrop, the latest BETI reading offers investors a rare bright spot: a data-driven argument that the turbulence may be creating opportunity rather than signaling the start of a deeper downturn.

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Traders who follow tactical signals may view this moment as a window to rebuild equity exposure, especially in areas that have been hit hardest by the recent selloff. That said, Altmann’s caution serves as an important reminder that even strong historical patterns can break down under the right conditions.

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Credit markets, for instance, often act as an early warning system for broader financial stress. The widening spreads and fading optimism captured in the Euphoria Indicator suggest that some investors are already bracing for a tougher environment ahead.

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For now, the market appears to be caught between these competing forces technical indicators pointing to a bounce, and sentiment gauges raising red flags. Whether BETI’s latest signal proves to be another reliable marker of near-term strength will depend largely on how economic data, earnings expectations, and policy signals evolve in the weeks ahead.

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But for traders exhausted by a turbulent week, the indicator offers something that has been in short supply lately: a statistically grounded reason to expect brighter days at least in the near term.

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