Despite This Year's Selloff, Wall Street's Biggest Bull Has Held His Nerves. Here's What They Saying Now

Despite the market's ups and downs this year, Christopher Harvey has remained steadfast in his bold prediction that the S&P 500 will reach 7,007—a target that sits well above current levels. Harvey, who serves as head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, told MarketWatch in a recent interview that he never considered backing down from that forecast, even when others questioned its plausibility.

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“I’ve been asked many times whether I’d revise the target,” Harvey said. “The answer was always the same—no change.” He explained that his outlook has consistently hinged on an improved second half of 2025, a belief that trade tensions were more strategic than structural, and an underlying economy supported by solid consumer spending—even if not spectacular.

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Currently, the S&P 500 has recovered significantly from its earlier dip near bear-market territory and has now eked out gains for the year. However, it still needs to climb another 19% to reach Harvey’s ambitious year-end target.

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His forecasting history gives him some credibility—his 2024 call for the index to end at 5,830 landed quite close to its actual finish of 5,881. In earlier years, his team also accurately predicted the 2021 melt-up and the 2022 correction, although the depth of that selloff exceeded expectations.

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Harvey remains confident in the market’s potential to rise, calling his current forecast a “very healthy target” and saying he still anticipates double-digit gains. A key factor that could help fuel this upward move, he believes, is interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. His team has long projected two or three rate reductions in the latter part of 2025. With inflation expectations starting to ease, the environment may become more favorable for such action.

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“Inflation expectations are coming down,” Harvey said, noting that some of his team’s research indicates companies are not raising prices as aggressively as headlines suggest. Price hikes, where they do occur, appear to be modest. Additionally, consumer behavior is playing a crucial role in shaping inflation. Shoppers are more price-conscious than ever, and they’re likely to either switch to cheaper alternatives or alter their buying habits altogether if prices rise too much. As a result, Harvey argues that it’s unclear whether the full extent of price increases will actually take effect in the market.

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Progress on trade issues was another key component of Harvey’s market outlook. Deals with both the United Kingdom and China are beginning to emerge, bringing clarity to what had been a clouded macroeconomic landscape. “When there’s resolution or even progress on trade, that gives the Fed a clearer path to begin easing policy,” he said.

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While Harvey expects some continued uncertainty around trade negotiations, he believes the recent 90-day pause in U.S.-China tariffs could prompt other nations to engage more actively in talks. “It puts pressure on many allies to come to the table and have more productive discussions,” he explained.

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Now that signs of progress on trade are evident, Harvey believes investors can refocus on fundamentals instead of being distracted by macroeconomic noise. Over the next 6 to 18 months, he sees a constructive backdrop driven by secular trends such as artificial intelligence, a shifting regulatory landscape, and an uptick in mergers and acquisitions activity.

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The AI sector, in particular, remains a robust opportunity, according to Harvey. Though skepticism surrounded AI investments at the beginning of 2025, he believes they’re proving their value. He draws a contrast with the dot-com boom of the late 1990s, noting that today’s AI expansion is being financed by financially strong companies—not over-leveraged players relying on cheap credit. Moreover, the commercialization and practical application of AI are happening at a much faster pace than many had anticipated.

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Earlier this month, Harvey’s team released a curated list of so-called “picks and shovels” stocks—companies that are crucial to supporting AI infrastructure and whose valuations are now more aligned with the broader market. Their diversified list includes names like Nvidia, Broadcom, NextEra Energy, Arista Networks, and Marvell Technology.

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Harvey also draws a comparison between the market's current challenges and those faced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both were triggered by external shocks, he said, yet in each case the underlying economy and balance sheets remained relatively intact—not flawless, but stable enough to weather the storm. This was another reason his team stuck with its bullish target. “We always believed the fundamentals were sound, unlike past crises,” Harvey emphasized.

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Still, Harvey acknowledges the market is not without risks. “We’re not entirely out of the woods,” he said, noting that rising interest rates remain a concern. If rates move higher for any number of reasons, that could present a near-term obstacle or even cap potential gains.

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As of now, U.S. stock futures are pointing upward, led by gains in the tech sector. Treasury yields are holding steady, while gold, oil, and the dollar are all trending lower—a setup that may continue to support Harvey’s optimistic stance as the year unfolds.

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