After a Big Earnings Miss, Tesla's Price Target Gets Cut

Following Tesla’s disappointing first-quarter earnings report, Wall Street analysts are re-evaluating their outlook on the electric vehicle giant and speculating on the road ahead.

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Tesla reported adjusted earnings of 27 cents per share on $19.34 billion in revenue for the first quarter. Both figures fell short of expectations — analysts surveyed by LSEG had projected 39 cents per share and $21.11 billion in revenue. In response to the shortfall, the company announced it would reassess its forward guidance during the second-quarter update.

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This earnings release comes amid a period of heightened scrutiny for Tesla and its CEO, Elon Musk. The company is dealing with global protests tied to Musk’s increasingly visible alignment with conservative political causes. During the earnings call, Musk addressed the controversy briefly, stating he plans to scale back his involvement with a federal government efficiency department tied to former President Donald Trump.

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Despite underperforming expectations, Tesla’s stock jumped more than 6% in premarket trading after the report was released. However, shares remain down approximately 41% for the year, reflecting a volatile period for the company as it navigates shifting consumer sentiment, political pressure, and operational headwinds.

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A number of analysts revised their price targets for Tesla after the report, with mixed views on the company’s future trajectory. Here’s a breakdown of what some of the top analysts had to say:

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Goldman Sachs reduced its price target for Tesla from $260 to $235 while maintaining a neutral rating. Analyst Mark Delaney noted the potential for long-term gains, particularly from Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. However, he warned that near-term expectations could be too optimistic. Goldman’s new target reflects about 1.2% downside from the stock’s recent close. While Delaney believes FSD could eventually boost profitability, he remains cautious on its monetization prospects relative to Tesla’s projections.

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Wells Fargo took a more pessimistic stance, cutting its price target from $130 to $120 — a level that implies a nearly 50% drop from current levels. Analyst Colin Langan reiterated an underweight rating, citing weak fundamentals and heightened risk from tariffs affecting Tesla’s energy generation division. He also expressed skepticism over the so-called new affordable model, speculating it might just be a cheaper version of the Model Y. Langan expects Tesla's stock to lose momentum as excitement from the earnings call fades.

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TD Cowen lowered its target from $388 to $330 but maintained a buy rating. Analyst Itay Michaeli said the quarter turned out “better than feared,” and he found comfort in the updates from the company’s earnings call. Despite challenges like weakening brand sentiment, global tariffs, and a difficult macroeconomic backdrop, Michaeli believes the longer-term catalyst pipeline — including autonomous vehicles and robotics — remains intact. With sentiment already low and expectations lowered, he sees an opportunity in the current setup, comparing it to a similar situation from the prior year.

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Piper Sandler kept its bullish price target of $400, indicating potential for a 68% rally. Analyst Alexander Potter maintained an overweight rating and emphasized that Tesla didn’t back away from its goal of launching robo-taxis or lower-priced vehicles in the first half of 2025. Potter argued that with less than two months left until June, upcoming product reveals could serve as near-term catalysts, helping to fend off bearish sentiment — at least temporarily — until more details emerge about these developments.

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UBS maintained its sell rating with a $190 price target, reflecting a potential 20% downside. Analyst Joseph Spak warned that any excitement around the robo-taxi reveal in June might quickly fade. He referred to the possibility of it becoming a “sell the news” event. Spak also noted that while Tesla confirmed that lower-cost vehicles are still on track for the first half of the year, the fact that they closely resemble current models might lead to cannibalization of existing, higher-priced versions. In his view, the low-cost vehicle catalyst may no longer carry the weight it once did.

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Canaccord Genuity also reduced its price target, from $404 to $303, while maintaining a buy rating. Analyst George Gianarikas acknowledged that Tesla needs to reinvigorate its growth story in order to win back investor confidence. He expressed optimism that the new Model Y and geographically limited versions of unsupervised FSD could provide some momentum this year. Long-term, Gianarikas sees Tesla as a bet on mastering self-driving technology, energy storage, and robotics — creating a vertically integrated leader across all three. While the path is complex, he believes Tesla has a real chance to succeed.

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In sum, while Tesla’s latest earnings disappointed and prompted widespread target cuts, several analysts still see upside potential tied to future innovations. Others, however, remain wary, pointing to growing concerns about competitive pressure, political noise, and product execution. As Tesla prepares to unveil new vehicles and possibly launch its robo-taxi program in the coming months, the market is watching closely for signs of renewed growth or further disappointment.

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